The Bradley Factor is Simply the Human Factor

Much election night analysis of why the polls were so wrong in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary focused on what is called “the Bradley Factor.” That’s Tom Bradley, the black losing candidate for mayor of Los Angeles who the polls predicted as a sure winner. Like Barack Obama. Bradley isn’t the only example, but the theory goes something like this: People don’t want to admit they harbor racial biases so they tell pollsters they are going to support a black candidate they know they would support, if not for his or her race. But when the curtain closes they vote otherwise -- or they just stay home.

The same phenomenon in reverse might be called the David Duke factor. The former Klan kingpin always ran better than he polled. That’s the beauty of the secret ballot. You can be yourself, even when you‘re ashamed of who you are. Notably, by Wednesday the TV news outlets had dropped this line of speculation. We remain as a nation unwilling to face our chronic prejudices.

The “Bradley Factor” might also be called the “human factor,” and it’s not uniquely American. The apostle Paul put it something like this: “those things I know I should do I don’t do. And those things I wish I wouldn’t do, I do.” It’s not easy being people. Reading the early part of the Bible you get the impression God thought he did a pretty good job of creating us. We proved God wrong on that one, which is how we ended up needing this thing called grace, where we’re not dependent on being better than Paul, or Duke supporters, or Bradley deserters.

The other day Christian Heartbeat received a generous donation from a personal friend who has been reading our publication. I was very thankful and proud that he and his wife support our work. He called our mission here “noble.” Paul writes in Romans that our actions in life should “take thought for what is noble.” I’d like to believe that’s what I’m doing but sometimes I wonder if I’m just completely full of myself. When I do, I console myself with the knowledge two of Christianity’s great heroes, Mother Teresa and Dietrich Bonhoeffer, the German pastor killed for opposing Hitler, also challenged themselves with the same question: Are my actions, which look sacrificial to others, nothing but a giant ego trip?

Neither was ever sure -- probably an indication in their favor, but that speaks to the impossibility of really knowing what makes any of us tick. So we struggle on with the “Bradley Factor,” never fully sure what motivates our brothers and sisters, and with the “human factor,” not even sure how we are motivated ourselves.